Where’s the Bottom?

If you ask a realtor, mortgage broker or builder, they will tell you it is a great time to buy. That the housing market can not get any lower and that “things” are getting better. I would like to believe them, but I do not see how things can get better when they are propped up, and there are no catalysts to increase demand.

We still have low interest rates. Rates should be higher due to the amount of risk involved with lending money in this economy and depreciating collateral. Interest rates are being kept artificially low by the Federal Reserve. If market forces eventually push rates up to where they should be, then we could hit bottom. Will rates ever go higher?

We still have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they have been bailed out and continue to buy loans on the secondary market. This eliminates risk for banks to lend responsibly and was part of the reason for the bubble in the first place. With government sponsored entities buying up every loan and banks being bailed out, they are not learning from their mistakes. The elimination of risk keeps banks lending and slows the fall to the bottom.

Unemployment has been going up, and I haven’t noticed any new jobs being created. I see a lot of vacant commercial space and people not spending money. In a service-based economy, this is not a good thing.

My guess is that we have a long slow ride to the bottom, which could take 5-10 years (hopefully not 17). Then from there we will see a less volatile market with slow and steady appreciation that keeps pace with population growth and hopefully inflation.